Miramar, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

331
FXUS62 KMFL 180513
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1213 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Robust H500 troughing and an attendant surface low/frontal
cyclone complex are traversing the South Florida/FL Keys region,
with the region remaining in the open warm sector of this system.
As a result, pronounced differential cyclonic vorticity advection
is allowing for gradual synoptic scale ascent, such that a broad
shield of light rain showers are encompassing much of the CWFA.
Expect light rain showers through much the evening, abating closer
to midnight/early morning hours. A few moderate showers will be
possible through this period as well; furthermore, an isolated
lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out along the immediate
east coast and over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Latest sfc analyses show a stationary, dissipating frontal
boundary lingering around the Florida Straits, while a weak ridge
dominates the SE CONUS. As the ridge gradually migrates eastward,
winds across South Florida will shift more easterly and remain
below 10mph today due to relaxing pressure gradients. High-Res
solutions keep a swath of moisture over extreme southern Florida
this afternoon, which can still be observed on latest radar data.
Thus, Wx/POPs will continue to carry 40-50 percent coverage today
and tonight for areas up to Miami-Dade/Broward, and decreasing to
around 20 percent for Palm Beach county and the Lake region.
Dynamic support remains unfavorable for thunderstorm activity.

By Saturday, flow becomes southerly while the stationary front
breaks down enough to allow for moisture to move further south of
the area. Meanwhile, the ridge to the north moves further east as
a trough/low complex sends a couple of associated frontal
boundaries into the deep SE CONUS and northern Florida. This will
bring enhanced moisture ahead of the fronts into the northern half
of the peninsula, but with a drier airmass remaining over SoFlo.
POPs decrease to single digits Saturday over land, with isolated
chances for rain across the Atlantic waters.

Temperature remain mild today with afternoon highs again in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s across much of the region. The arrival of warmer moisture and
southwest flow will result in a brief warming trend on Saturday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

A cold front moves across the state late Sunday before settling
around South Florida on Monday with the loss of the support from
the parent surface low as it moves northward quickly. Cooler
temperatures promoted by plenty of cloud cover and enough
available moisture to promote reasonably healthy rain chances of
30 to 50 percent to kick off the holiday week. High pressure will
build over a good portion of the eastern two-thirds of the United
States while Florida sits in an unsettled region with the
potential for a low pressure to develop in or around the Gulf of
Mexico by mid- week before it moves northeastward up the Atlantic
seaboard late week. A cold front will move into the peninsula late
Wednesday into Thursday, potentially stalling around southern
Florida to close out the forecast period.

Sunday ahead of the cold front may be the warmest day in the
forecast period with some spots even reaching the lower to mid 80s
along the eastern half of the peninsula. Highs on Monday and
Wednesday could struggle to climb into the 60s over a good portion
of the area, save for the immediate Atlantic coast and east coast
metro urban heat island. 40s across inland Southwest Florida with
50s elsewhere except along the immediate Atlantic coast could be
the story several mornings in the long term forecast period this
week.

Forecast uncertainty in the long term centers on a few key items
to watch at this point in time:

1. How far each frontal passage is able to advance south. Right
now consensus keeps stalling the boundaries as they weaken over
southern Florida or the straits which limits the intrusion of the
coldest air but also limits the drier air from establishing itself
across the area. If this changes, conditions could become drier
and cooler than forecast.

2. While much of the rain should be lighter in nature, there could
be periods of time with some moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall
accumulations will need to be monitored in case any area were to
become saturated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning, with some occasional
IFR/LIFR ceilings especially impacting APF and SW FL. Scattered
showers through the morning. Slowly improving conditions the
second half of the day. ESE winds early this morning becoming SSW
after 11Z with some gusts around 20 kts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Winds will gradually increase across the coastal waters through the
weekend while veering to the south/southwest. Wind speeds will be
reaching the 10 to 15 knots range, except over the Atlantic waters,
where speeds could get up to 15 to 20 knots by Saturday. The
Atlantic seas will remain below 5 feet through this weekend with the
Gulf seas remaining below 2 feet. A cold front approaches the area
late Sunday and into early next week, bringing again hazardous
boating conditions for much of the coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Beach conditions will be changing in relatively short periods of
time as winds and swells change with frontal boundaries moving into
the region through early next week. Risk level will be moderate for
today for the Atlantic beaches, and possibly becoming high on
Saturday. By Sunday into Monday risk will likely drop back to
moderate, then potentially back to high again by mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  68  82  60 /  30   0  20  20
West Kendall     82  65  84  58 /  30   0  20  20
Opa-Locka        82  66  84  59 /  30   0  20  20
Homestead        81  67  82  60 /  30   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  67  82  60 /  30   0  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  82  67  83  59 /  20   0  20  20
Pembroke Pines   84  68  85  60 /  30   0  20  20
West Palm Beach  82  66  83  57 /  10   0  30  20
Boca Raton       83  66  84  58 /  20   0  20  20
Naples           76  66  76  53 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF